Qualification · Qualification 112

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

455.78 – 239.72

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

580 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 82 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 818.7 ±9.3

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 120.48Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 48.65Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 286.65Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.3 ±10.5

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 55.71Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 82.9Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 101.11Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 59, 1684, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

455.8 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 59, 1684, 6800

Auto

90.3 20%

Teleop

262.3 57%

Endgame

105.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3792, 302, 3932

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.7 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3792, 302, 3932

Auto

74.0 32%

Teleop

134.0 58%

Endgame

23.7 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.67 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score455.8pts

Blue projected score239.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 216.1
Score range: 165–531
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 780 vs event baseline 415.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

818.7Season APEX531.3

90.3Auto74

262.3Teleop134

105.5Endgame23.7

184Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	75
teleop	325	88
endgame	144	37
foul	0	0
total	580	200

Result

Final score

580 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 82 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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