Qualification · Qualification 111

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

516.46 – 462.77

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

479 – 538

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 797.6 ±10.8

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 116.19Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 108.33Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 291.94Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700 ±9.3

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 114.2Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 196.6Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 151.97Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6413, 6510, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

516.5 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 6413, 6510, 6369

Auto

110.5 21%

Teleop

279.0 54%

Endgame

126.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5712, 10254, 7565

/ 100 compat

Projected

462.8 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 5712, 10254, 7565

Auto

42.6 9%

Teleop

268.2 59%

Endgame

144.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score516.5pts

Blue projected score462.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.7
Score range: 388–591
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1017 vs event baseline 414.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

797.6Season APEX700

110.5Auto42.6

279Teleop268.2

126.2Endgame144.2

166Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	129
teleop	231	270
endgame	165	119
foul	10	20
total	479	538

Result

Final score

479 – 538

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.