Qualification · Qualification 109

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

384.5 – 360.97

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

554 – 514

Prediction correct · off by 161.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.5 ±10.4

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 117.8Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 138.23Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7421PrepaTec - OVERTURE

Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 128.47Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.6 ±9.9

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 54.34Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 129.29Rank 62Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 177.34Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6417, 4611, 7421

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.5 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 6417, 4611, 7421

Auto

75.2 20%

Teleop

218.6 58%

Endgame

83.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9200, 6366, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

361 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9200, 6366, 1714

Auto

46.5 13%

Teleop

192.9 55%

Endgame

108.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score384.5pts

Blue projected score361pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.5
Score range: 287–459
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1068 vs event baseline 412.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.5Season APEX558.6

75.2Auto46.5

218.6Teleop192.9

83Endgame108.9

172Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	94
teleop	294	292
endgame	131	123
foul	5	5
total	554	514

Result

Final score

554 – 514

Prediction correct · off by 161.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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