Qualification · Qualification 107

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

482.08 – 509.25

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

471 – 445

Prediction missed · off by 37.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 757.8 ±9.3

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 133.8Rank 25Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 151.76Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 196.52Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 760.5 ±9.3

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 169.01Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 221.18Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 119.06Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6045, 6615, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

482.1 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 6045, 6615, 5199

Auto

85.4 18%

Teleop

263.6 56%

Endgame

123.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1024, 1987, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

509.3 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1024, 1987, 6497

Auto

69.2 14%

Teleop

289.8 57%

Endgame

150.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.67 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score482.1pts

Blue projected score509.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.2
Score range: 408–583
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 916 vs event baseline 411.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

757.8Season APEX760.5

85.4Auto69.2

263.6Teleop289.8

123.7Endgame150.4

113Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	96
teleop	214	251
endgame	162	98
foul	15	0
total	471	445

Result

Final score

471 – 445

Prediction missed · off by 37.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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