Qualification · Qualification 106

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

336.26 – 382.95

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 117.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 716.7 ±9.9

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 44.45Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 168.91Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 122.9Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 791.7 ±14.5

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 132.07Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 14.11Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5987Galaxia in memory of David Zohar

A+

Season APEX 327.4Event APEX 236.77Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8280, 8613, 1477

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.3 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 8280, 8613, 1477

Auto

65.3 20%

Teleop

187.4 57%

Endgame

78.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6773, 11304, 5987

/ 100 compat

Projected

383 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 6773, 11304, 5987

Auto

67.5 18%

Teleop

200.6 54%

Endgame

105.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score336.3pts

Blue projected score383pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.7
Score range: 262–457
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 412.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

716.7Season APEX791.7

65.3Auto67.5

187.4Teleop200.6

78.4Endgame105.6

107Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	30
teleop	145	170
endgame	63	33
foul	15	0
total	251	233

Result

Final score

251 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 117.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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