Qualification · Qualification 104

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

501.59 – 368.56

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

490 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 755.5 ±10.4

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 232.97Rank 6Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 106.29Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 162.33Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.8 ±9.8

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 243.34Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 92.21Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 33.01Rank 37Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7028, 3932, 2992

/ 100 compat

Projected

501.6 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 7028, 3932, 2992

Auto

124.8 25%

Teleop

258.7 52%

Endgame

113.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5193, 2053, 10922

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.6 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 5193, 2053, 10922

Auto

105.7 30%

Teleop

185.2 52%

Endgame

62.0 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.52 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score501.6pts

Blue projected score368.6pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133
Score range: 295–576
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 875 vs event baseline 413.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

755.5Season APEX633.8

124.8Auto105.7

258.7Teleop185.2

113.5Endgame62

132Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	143	111
teleop	207	161
endgame	120	113
foul	20	0
total	490	385

Result

Final score

490 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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