Qualification · Qualification 103

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

239.29 – 597.67

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

396 – 689

Prediction correct · off by 124 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.3 ±9.8

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 36.5Rank 29Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 132.36Rank 21Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 70.43Rank 56Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 886.4 ±9.3

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 178.11Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 140.57Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 278.99Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2682, 1498, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.3 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2682, 1498, 8725

Auto

56.9 24%

Teleop

133.6 57%

Endgame

45.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2724, 9068, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

597.7 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2724, 9068, 6800

Auto

93.5 16%

Teleop

346.9 59%

Endgame

145.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score239.3pts

Blue projected score597.7pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -358.4
Score range: 165–672
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1085 vs event baseline 411.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.3Season APEX886.4

56.9Auto93.5

133.6Teleop346.9

45.8Endgame145.7

123Consistency183

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	130
teleop	198	378
endgame	81	166
foul	40	15
total	396	689

Result

Final score

396 – 689

Prediction correct · off by 124 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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