Qualification · Qualification 101

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

303.39 – 316.63

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

274 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.8 ±11

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 68.05Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 82.19Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 153.15Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 663.1 ±8.7

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 61.5Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 169.3Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 85.83Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4256, 2357, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.4 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 4256, 2357, 8595

Auto

80.2 27%

Teleop

143.2 48%

Endgame

76.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2637, 571, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.6 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2637, 571, 302

Auto

85.6 27%

Teleop

166.5 53%

Endgame

61.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score303.4pts

Blue projected score316.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.2
Score range: 229–391
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 626 vs event baseline 410.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

609.8Season APEX663.1

80.2Auto85.6

143.2Teleop166.5

76.7Endgame61.7

128Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	47
teleop	175	215
endgame	49	85
foul	20	5
total	274	352

Result

Final score

274 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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