Qualification · Qualification 100

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

322.45 – 489.08

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 139.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528 ±9.3

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 83.84Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 89.22Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 149.39Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 717.7 ±10.5

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 77.1Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 277.5Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 134.48Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2443, 4786, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.5 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2443, 4786, 10349

Auto

48.9 16%

Teleop

185.6 62%

Endgame

62.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3792, 5907, 59

/ 100 compat

Projected

489.1 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3792, 5907, 59

Auto

69.0 14%

Teleop

290.7 60%

Endgame

124.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score322.5pts

Blue projected score489.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -166.6
Score range: 248–563
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 412.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528Season APEX717.7

48.9Auto69

185.6Teleop290.7

62.6Endgame124.2

147Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	101
teleop	85	177
endgame	40	81
foul	5	0
total	174	359

Result

Final score

174 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 139.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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