Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

566.31 – 368.37

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

704 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 893.7 ±9.3

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 55.96Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 301.55Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 208.8Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585.4 ±11.1

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 244.09Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 39.38Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 84.9Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 589, 254, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

566.3 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 589, 254, 10254

Auto

108.9 20%

Teleop

302.3 54%

Endgame

146.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5193, 3792, 7567

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.4 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5193, 3792, 7567

Auto

79.8 22%

Teleop

189.5 53%

Endgame

87.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score566.3pts

Blue projected score368.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 197.9
Score range: 290–644
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1106 vs event baseline 433.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

893.7Season APEX585.4

108.9Auto79.8

302.3Teleop189.5

146.3Endgame87.9

101Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	148	76
teleop	394	179
endgame	162	147
foul	0	0
total	704	402

Result

Final score

704 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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