Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

749.3 – 657.98

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

719 – 550

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1116 ±9.9

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 149.88Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 295.65Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 303.77Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 879.4 ±8.1

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 273.81Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 111.76Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 272.41Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8613, 6800, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

749.3 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 8613, 6800, 254

Auto

152.4 21%

Teleop

427.4 58%

Endgame

162.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6369, 166, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

658 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6369, 166, 5907

Auto

125.5 19%

Teleop

367.1 56%

Endgame

160.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.49 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score749.3pts

Blue projected score658pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.3
Score range: 580–827
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1269 vs event baseline 431.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1116Season APEX879.4

152.4Auto125.5

427.4Teleop367.1

162.2Endgame160.6

92Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	167	91
teleop	400	285
endgame	137	169
foul	15	5
total	719	550

Result

Final score

719 – 550

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 pts

Match videos

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