Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.37 – 158.13

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.9 ±10

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 29.17Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 120.2Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 95Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±11

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 13.71Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 59.2Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 85.22Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4572, 4909, 7127

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4572, 4909, 7127

Auto

31.1 14%

Teleop

142.6 63%

Endgame

51.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2064, 8085, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2064, 8085, 230

Auto

32.5 21%

Teleop

83.2 54%

Endgame

38.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score244.4pts

Blue projected score158.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.2
Score range: 133–269
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 480 vs event baseline 140.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.9Season APEX299.9

31.1Auto32.5

142.6Teleop83.2

51.1Endgame38.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	46
teleop	165	76
endgame	77	62
foul	10	10
total	286	194

Result

Final score

286 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Match videos

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