Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.86 – 69.55

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.4 ±13.9

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 72.67Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 21.52Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 2.67Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.3 ±12.2

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 19.58Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 32.88Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 17.09Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7694, 1099, 11409

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7694, 1099, 11409

Auto

17.9 19%

Teleop

55.5 58%

Endgame

22.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10245, 6933, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10245, 6933, 999

Auto

18.0 27%

Teleop

31.1 47%

Endgame

16.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.9pts

Blue projected score69.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.3
Score range: 45–122
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 138.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.4Season APEX242.3

17.9Auto18

55.5Teleop31.1

22.3Endgame16.5

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	37	92
endgame	5	28
foul	0	0
total	56	137

Result

Final score

56 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 54.2 pts

Match videos

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