Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.17 – 82.38

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.8 ±11.7

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 22.59Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 24.36Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 17.22Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.4 ±11

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 1.18Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 34.45Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 46.75Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7153, 8889, 10592

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7153, 8889, 10592

Auto

27.5 42%

Teleop

19.0 29%

Endgame

18.8 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10133, 558, 3654

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10133, 558, 3654

Auto

17.1 21%

Teleop

37.9 46%

Endgame

26.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.2pts

Blue projected score82.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.2
Score range: 39–107
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.8Season APEX225.4

27.5Auto17.1

19Teleop37.9

18.8Endgame26.9

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	28
teleop	26	42
endgame	32	24
foul	0	0
total	81	94

Result

Final score

81 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 pts

Match videos

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