Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.15 – 94.38

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

334 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.9 ±10

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 23.35Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 114.98Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 87.82Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.4 ±13.9

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 70.92Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 21.26Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 2.2Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4572, 4909, 7127

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4572, 4909, 7127

Auto

27.5 13%

Teleop

136.3 64%

Endgame

50.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7694, 1099, 11409

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7694, 1099, 11409

Auto

18.6 20%

Teleop

59.5 64%

Endgame

14.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.2pts

Blue projected score94.4pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.8
Score range: 69–251
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 138.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.9Season APEX154.4

27.5Auto18.6

136.3Teleop59.5

50.1Endgame14.3

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	17
teleop	178	44
endgame	58	53
foul	50	0
total	334	114

Result

Final score

334 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 pts

Match videos

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