Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.73 – 147.28

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.4 ±11

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 2.77Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 34.73Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 48.23Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.3 ±10.4

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 21.93Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 58.32Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 67.03Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10133, 558, 3654

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10133, 558, 3654

Auto

15.4 18%

Teleop

39.3 46%

Endgame

31.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1071, 173, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1071, 173, 228

Auto

31.3 22%

Teleop

84.6 59%

Endgame

26.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.7pts

Blue projected score147.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.5
Score range: 61–172
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.4Season APEX338.3

15.4Auto31.3

39.3Teleop84.6

31.2Endgame26.4

0Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	21
teleop	36	77
endgame	16	81
foul	5	10
total	81	189

Result

Final score

81 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Match videos

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