Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.97 – 133.9

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±11

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 15.1Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 60.61Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 86.26Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.3 ±10.4

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 17.71Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 54.81Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 61.38Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2064, 8085, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

162 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2064, 8085, 230

Auto

35.1 22%

Teleop

82.0 52%

Endgame

40.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1071, 173, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1071, 173, 228

Auto

27.1 21%

Teleop

72.3 56%

Endgame

29.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162pts

Blue projected score133.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.1
Score range: 108–188
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.9Season APEX338.3

35.1Auto27.1

82Teleop72.3

40.7Endgame29.7

8Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	28
teleop	36	52
endgame	22	64
foul	5	0
total	108	144

Result

Final score

108 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 32 pts

Match videos

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