Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
529.91 – 251.08
97%3%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
506 – 268
Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.1 ±9.9
Season APEX 24Event APEX 4.18Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 293.54Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 232.19Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.9 ±10
Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 31.32Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 122.51Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 97.25Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7907, 6328, 176
79
/ 100 compatProjected
529.9 pts
~2.5 RP (district)
Teams: 7907, 6328, 176
Auto
92.4 17%
Teleop
327.6 62%
Endgame
108.9 21%
Strengths
- · 6328 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4572, 4909, 7127
79
/ 100 compatProjected
251.1 pts
~0.6 RP (district)
Teams: 4572, 4909, 7127
Auto
31.5 14%
Teleop
146.5 63%
Endgame
55.1 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.6
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score529.9pts
Blue projected score251.1pts
Red win probability97%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%
Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 278.8
- Score range
- 226–555
- Upset likelihood
- 3%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
603.1Season APEX374.9
92.4Auto31.5
327.6Teleop146.5
108.9Endgame55.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 85 | 66 |
| teleop | 301 | 133 |
| endgame | 115 | 69 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 506 | 268 |
Result
Final score
506 – 268
Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts
Match videos
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