Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.83 – 82.2

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±11

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 15.67Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 61.19Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 86.97Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.4 ±11

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 0.62Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 34.49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 47.09Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2064, 8085, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2064, 8085, 230

Auto

34.7 22%

Teleop

82.2 52%

Endgame

42.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10133, 558, 3654

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10133, 558, 3654

Auto

18.6 23%

Teleop

37.3 46%

Endgame

26.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.8pts

Blue projected score82.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.6
Score range: 57–189
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 141.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.9Season APEX225.4

34.7Auto18.6

82.2Teleop37.3

42.3Endgame26

3Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	21
teleop	79	37
endgame	32	40
foul	0	5
total	150	103

Result

Final score

150 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 pts

Match videos

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