Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.65 – 136.6

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 91.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.5 ±11.7

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 104.83Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 5.11Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 11.71Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.2 ±11.4

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 11.71Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX -22.54Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 147.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 2064, 5856

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6328, 2064, 5856

Auto

22.4 19%

Teleop

68.4 57%

Endgame

29.8 25%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6933, 2712, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6933, 2712, 4909

Auto

21.2 16%

Teleop

74.9 58%

Endgame

33.3 26%

Strengths

· 4909 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.7pts

Blue projected score136.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.9
Score range: 102–157
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 110.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.5Season APEX285.2

22.4Auto21.2

68.4Teleop74.9

29.8Endgame33.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	26
teleop	215	73
endgame	1	2
foul	5	5
total	274	106

Result

Final score

274 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 91.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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