Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.3 – 61.47

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.5 ±12.8

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 35.71Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX -11.83Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 12.42Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.3 ±12.8

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 24.31Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 1.45Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 35.71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 230, 10245, 10592

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 230, 10245, 10592

Auto

8.4 25%

Teleop

9.2 27%

Endgame

16.2 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7694, 999, 1099

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7694, 999, 1099

Auto

13.1 22%

Teleop

30.5 51%

Endgame

16.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.3pts

Blue projected score61.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.2
Score range: 16–81
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 112.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.5Season APEX229.3

8.4Auto13.1

9.2Teleop30.5

16.2Endgame16.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	11
teleop	49	47
endgame	39	22
foul	0	0
total	121	80

Result

Final score

121 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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