Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

73.14 – 43

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 39.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267 ±11.7

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 6.57Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 8Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 58.57Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.4 ±12.2

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX -22.14Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 58.57Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 6.57Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7153, 11464, 173

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7153, 11464, 173

Auto

16.9 23%

Teleop

38.9 53%

Endgame

17.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10266, 8085, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

43 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10266, 8085, 10133

Auto

13.7 32%

Teleop

20.3 47%

Endgame

9.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.1pts

Blue projected score43pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.1
Score range: 21–95
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 122.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267Season APEX246.4

16.9Auto13.7

38.9Teleop20.3

17.4Endgame9.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	20
teleop	6	44
endgame	2	12
foul	0	0
total	27	76

Result

Final score

27 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 39.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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