Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.68 – 31.52

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.7 ±11.7

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 68.25Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 36.01Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 18.42Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.2 ±12.7

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 11.77Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 0.67Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 19.08Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 228, 558, 10592

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 228, 558, 10592

Auto

24.7 21%

Teleop

63.1 53%

Endgame

31.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2064, 10133, 2785

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2064, 10133, 2785

Auto

7.1 24%

Teleop

14.8 50%

Endgame

7.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.7pts

Blue projected score31.5pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.2
Score range: 8–147
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 135.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.7Season APEX165.2

24.7Auto7.1

63.1Teleop14.8

31.2Endgame7.5

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	17
teleop	72	26
endgame	27	15
foul	0	5
total	127	63

Result

Final score

127 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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