Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.32 – 133.34

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.9 ±12.8

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 1.15Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -8.68Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 20.85Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.2 ±12

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX 8Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 114.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 11.21Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11409, 9193, 1071

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11409, 9193, 1071

Auto

13.3 100%

Teleop

-5.4 0%

Endgame

2.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10266, 4909, 5746

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10266, 4909, 5746

Auto

21.4 17%

Teleop

75.3 59%

Endgame

30.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score13.3pts

Blue projected score133.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120
Score range: -12–158
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 136.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.9Season APEX272.2

13.3Auto21.4

-5.4Teleop75.3

2Endgame30.1

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	27
teleop	16	77
endgame	11	53
foul	5	5
total	45	162

Result

Final score

45 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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