Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.21 – 354.21

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.9 ±12.2

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 24.03Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -6Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 13.18Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.7 ±11.2

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 286.46Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 19.98Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 47.77Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8889, 9193, 2064

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.2 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8889, 9193, 2064

Auto

12.5 42%

Teleop

0.3 1%

Endgame

16.9 57%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6328, 2785, 3654

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6328, 2785, 3654

Auto

58.3 17%

Teleop

213.4 62%

Endgame

74.1 21%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.42 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.2pts

Blue projected score354.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -323
Score range: 4–381
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.9Season APEX441.7

12.5Auto58.3

0.3Teleop213.4

16.9Endgame74.1

3Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	45
teleop	9	202
endgame	16	66
foul	0	5
total	36	318

Result

Final score

36 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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