Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.51 – 50.53

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.6 ±12.8

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 17.5Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 55.91Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 7.1Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.1 ±11.6

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 10.12Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 13.49Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 26.92Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10592, 8085, 716

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10592, 8085, 716

Auto

24.7 31%

Teleop

33.2 41%

Endgame

22.9 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 999, 2064, 4572

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 999, 2064, 4572

Auto

5.6 11%

Teleop

36.8 73%

Endgame

7.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.5pts

Blue projected score50.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30
Score range: 27–105
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 133.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.6Season APEX255.1

24.7Auto5.6

33.2Teleop36.8

22.9Endgame7.8

11Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	14
teleop	47	19
endgame	32	10
foul	0	0
total	103	43

Result

Final score

103 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 15 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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