Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.53 – 23.54

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

60 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±12.8

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 23.88Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 10.96Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 75.69Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.2 ±12.8

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 10.51Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 21.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -8.46Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2785, 11464, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2785, 11464, 228

Auto

13.5 13%

Teleop

67.7 66%

Endgame

20.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5746, 7153, 9193

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5746, 7153, 9193

Auto

16.8 75%

Teleop

-7.2 0%

Endgame

12.9 57%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.5pts

Blue projected score23.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87
Score range: 0–135
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 88 vs event baseline 135.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.3Season APEX187.2

13.5Auto16.8

67.7Teleop-7.2

20.8Endgame12.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	16
teleop	29	2
endgame	10	5
foul	0	5
total	60	28

Result

Final score

60 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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