Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.06 – 82.41

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 76.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.7 ±10.8

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 108.73Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 5.05Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 40.28Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.2 ±12.2

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 15.34Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -0.22Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 67.29Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 5856, 3654

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 5856, 3654

Auto

21.2 14%

Teleop

91.0 62%

Endgame

34.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1071, 10133, 7694

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1071, 10133, 7694

Auto

17.9 21%

Teleop

47.3 56%

Endgame

18.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.1pts

Blue projected score82.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.7
Score range: 58–178
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 131.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.7Season APEX233.2

21.2Auto17.9

91Teleop47.3

34.5Endgame18.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	20
teleop	129	89
endgame	70	34
foul	0	10
total	236	153

Result

Final score

236 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 76.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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