Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.19 – 98.98

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 158

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.4 ±12.2

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 4.79Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 17.46Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 87.94Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.1 ±11.7

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 7.54Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 56.24Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 35.2Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11409, 2064, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11409, 2064, 230

Auto

24.9 23%

Teleop

58.1 54%

Endgame

24.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10245, 173, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

99 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10245, 173, 558

Auto

23.6 24%

Teleop

46.4 48%

Endgame

26.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.2pts

Blue projected score99pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.2
Score range: 75–134
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 131.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.4Season APEX251.1

24.9Auto23.6

58.1Teleop46.4

24.2Endgame26.6

0Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	24
teleop	52	105
endgame	24	29
foul	5	0
total	105	158

Result

Final score

105 – 158

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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