Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

64.86 – 35.92

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.2 ±13.9

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 21.61Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 14.54Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 28.71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.7 ±12.2

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 16.45Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 18.11Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 1.36Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10592, 5746, 1099

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10592, 5746, 1099

Auto

16.2 26%

Teleop

26.1 42%

Endgame

20.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6933, 7153, 716

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6933, 7153, 716

Auto

32.8 78%

Teleop

10.0 24%

Endgame

-0.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.9pts

Blue projected score35.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.9
Score range: 12–89
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 132.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.2Season APEX220.7

16.2Auto32.8

26.1Teleop10

20.4Endgame-0.9

9Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	10	37
endgame	8	33
foul	0	15
total	34	109

Result

Final score

34 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 52 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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