Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.42 – 48.61

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.7 ±12.2

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 56.88Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 31.46Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 28.08Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.5 ±10.4

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 20.66Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 14.9Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 13.05Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 173, 4572, 2785

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 173, 4572, 2785

Auto

19.4 18%

Teleop

69.2 64%

Endgame

19.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8889, 1071, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8889, 1071, 999

Auto

16.6 35%

Teleop

10.2 22%

Endgame

20.4 43%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.4pts

Blue projected score48.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.8
Score range: 26–139
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 130.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.7Season APEX329.5

19.4Auto16.6

69.2Teleop10.2

19.5Endgame20.4

12Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	27
teleop	77	27
endgame	26	19
foul	5	5
total	131	78

Result

Final score

131 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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