Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.54 – 364.55

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.7 ±11.7

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 14.98Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 40.49Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 89.07Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.1 ±11.2

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 76.01Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 280Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 8.54Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11464, 3654, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11464, 3654, 230

Auto

25.8 18%

Teleop

75.5 53%

Endgame

40.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7127, 6328, 11409

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7127, 6328, 11409

Auto

55.1 15%

Teleop

216.2 60%

Endgame

89.6 25%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.5pts

Blue projected score364.6pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -220
Score range: 122–388
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 127.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.7Season APEX474.1

25.8Auto55.1

75.5Teleop216.2

40.4Endgame89.6

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	73
teleop	84	240
endgame	31	12
foul	10	15
total	147	340

Result

Final score

147 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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