Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.57 – 139.28

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.9 ±12.2

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 36.8Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 15.6Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 10.17Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.4 ±11.7

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 36.65Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 84Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 18.63Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6933, 1071, 5856

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6933, 1071, 5856

Auto

20.3 34%

Teleop

28.4 47%

Endgame

11.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 558, 230, 1099

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 558, 230, 1099

Auto

33.3 24%

Teleop

61.7 45%

Endgame

41.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.6pts

Blue projected score139.3pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.7
Score range: 36–166
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.9Season APEX248.4

20.3Auto33.3

28.4Teleop61.7

11.5Endgame41.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	33
teleop	6	47
endgame	17	40
foul	0	5
total	41	125

Result

Final score

41 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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