Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.07 – 36.79

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.9 ±10.7

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 109.98Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX -12.73Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 2.82Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.7 ±12.8

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX -2.24Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 33.11Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 5.92Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 7907, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 7907, 10133

Auto

11.8 12%

Teleop

61.3 63%

Endgame

24.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10266, 558, 2712

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10266, 558, 2712

Auto

14.9 47%

Teleop

5.2 17%

Endgame

11.4 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.1pts

Blue projected score36.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.3
Score range: 14–123
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 128.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.9Season APEX189.7

11.8Auto14.9

61.3Teleop5.2

24.6Endgame11.4

0Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	8
teleop	61	41
endgame	19	26
foul	0	0
total	101	75

Result

Final score

101 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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