Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

71.48 – 64.59

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.3 ±12.8

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 30.9Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 18.27Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 22.31Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.4 ±12.8

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 53.78Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 18.7Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX -7.89Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2785, 5746, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2785, 5746, 8889

Auto

17.7 27%

Teleop

26.9 41%

Endgame

21.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 173, 10592, 5856

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 173, 10592, 5856

Auto

18.0 31%

Teleop

39.1 67%

Endgame

0.9 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.5pts

Blue projected score64.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.9
Score range: 42–94
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 130.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.3Season APEX201.4

17.7Auto18

26.9Teleop39.1

21.7Endgame0.9

23Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	22
teleop	17	58
endgame	18	20
foul	15	0
total	64	100

Result

Final score

64 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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