Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

336.94 – 78.88

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

477 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 93.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.2 ±11.2

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 267.54Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX -7.69Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 77.09Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.1 ±13.3

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX -5.26Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 61.1Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 23.04Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 716, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6328, 716, 230

Auto

62.4 19%

Teleop

200.9 60%

Endgame

73.8 22%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10266, 7694, 2064

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10266, 7694, 2064

Auto

15.6 20%

Teleop

53.8 69%

Endgame

8.4 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score336.9pts

Blue projected score78.9pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 258.1
Score range: 56–360
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 603 vs event baseline 125.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.2Season APEX155.1

62.4Auto15.6

200.9Teleop53.8

73.8Endgame8.4

60Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	18
teleop	265	69
endgame	117	34
foul	5	5
total	477	126

Result

Final score

477 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 93.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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