Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.08 – 111.76

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.1 ±12.7

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 25.89Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 28.55Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX -14.36Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.7 ±12

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -2Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 5.5Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 108.26Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6933, 2785, 7907

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6933, 2785, 7907

Auto

24.5 60%

Teleop

24.8 60%

Endgame

-8.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11464, 11409, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11464, 11409, 4909

Auto

9.2 9%

Teleop

66.4 63%

Endgame

30.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.1pts

Blue projected score111.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.7
Score range: 17–135
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 125.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.1Season APEX272.7

24.5Auto9.2

24.8Teleop66.4

-8.3Endgame30.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	15
teleop	28	109
endgame	17	47
foul	5	0
total	61	171

Result

Final score

61 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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