Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.75 – 114.28

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.9 ±11.7

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX -7.44Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 15.38Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 66.81Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.7 ±11.7

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 86.28Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 20.87Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 7.13Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2712, 8889, 7127

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2712, 8889, 7127

Auto

20.7 27%

Teleop

31.9 42%

Endgame

23.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 228, 1071, 10245

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 228, 1071, 10245

Auto

26.4 26%

Teleop

58.7 57%

Endgame

18.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.8pts

Blue projected score114.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.5
Score range: 52–137
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 125.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.9Season APEX276.7

20.7Auto26.4

31.9Teleop58.7

23.5Endgame18.2

94Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	22
teleop	61	45
endgame	67	19
foul	20	0
total	159	86

Result

Final score

159 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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