Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.18 – 127.73

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 99.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.6 ±11.7

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 28.34Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 219.67Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 17.17Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.8 ±11.7

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 81.74Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 1.53Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 44.46Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10133, 176, 716

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10133, 176, 716

Auto

39.9 15%

Teleop

163.1 61%

Endgame

63.2 24%

Strengths

· 176 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 230, 5856, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 230, 5856, 8085

Auto

32.8 26%

Teleop

56.4 44%

Endgame

38.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score265.2pts

Blue projected score127.7pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.5
Score range: 105–288
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 127.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.6Season APEX294.8

39.9Auto32.8

163.1Teleop56.4

63.2Endgame38

21Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	19
teleop	19	81
endgame	6	20
foul	0	15
total	73	135

Result

Final score

73 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 99.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.