Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.47 – 410.92

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 516

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.8 ±13.9

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 12.19Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 18.03Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 14.25Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.4 ±8.8

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 59.87Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 126.55Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 224.5Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11464, 10592, 5746

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11464, 10592, 5746

Auto

8.6 21%

Teleop

24.8 60%

Endgame

8.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 228, 4909, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 228, 4909, 176

Auto

69.2 17%

Teleop

239.2 60%

Endgame

90.9 23%

Strengths

· 176 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.45 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.5pts

Blue projected score410.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -366.5
Score range: 17–438
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 544 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.8Season APEX553.4

8.6Auto69.2

24.8Teleop239.2

8.1Endgame90.9

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	75
teleop	10	310
endgame	12	111
foul	0	20
total	28	516

Result

Final score

28 – 516

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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