Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.08 – 409.52

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

205 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.3 ±11.7

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 42.35Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 46.95Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 51.78Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.8 ±9.5

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 33.35Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 106.48Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 269.69Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3654, 173, 7694

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3654, 173, 7694

Auto

19.7 14%

Teleop

89.4 65%

Endgame

28.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4572, 4909, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4572, 4909, 6328

Auto

60.4 15%

Teleop

263.0 66%

Endgame

76.5 19%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.1pts

Blue projected score409.5pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -268.4
Score range: 119–432
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 607 vs event baseline 123.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.3Season APEX551.8

19.7Auto60.4

89.4Teleop263

28.6Endgame76.5

15Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	41
teleop	118	265
endgame	43	91
foul	10	5
total	205	402

Result

Final score

205 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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