Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.36 – 24.96

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448 ±11.2

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 216.62Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 19.47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 1.27Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.1 ±11.7

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 9.4Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX -3.16Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 18.72Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 176, 999, 11409

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 176, 999, 11409

Auto

35.5 15%

Teleop

154.7 67%

Endgame

41.5 18%

Strengths

· 176 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7153, 2712, 1071

/ 100 compat

Projected

25 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7153, 2712, 1071

Auto

22.1 78%

Teleop

-3.2 0%

Endgame

9.5 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.4pts

Blue projected score25pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 212.4
Score range: 3–259
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448Season APEX251.1

35.5Auto22.1

154.7Teleop-3.2

41.5Endgame9.5

97Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	21
teleop	131	19
endgame	81	0
foul	0	0
total	265	40

Result

Final score

265 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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