Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

276.65 – 19.79

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

409 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 67.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.2 ±11.7

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 13.57Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 9.98Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 253.1Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.7 ±13.9

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 5.22Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 1.72Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 12.85Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1099, 10133, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1099, 10133, 6328

Auto

40.0 15%

Teleop

175.5 64%

Endgame

56.8 21%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10245, 11464, 716

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10245, 11464, 716

Auto

5.6 28%

Teleop

7.5 37%

Endgame

7.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score276.7pts

Blue projected score19.8pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 256.9
Score range: -2–299
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.2Season APEX192.7

40Auto5.6

175.5Teleop7.5

56.8Endgame7.1

64Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	7
teleop	252	9
endgame	101	6
foul	0	0
total	409	22

Result

Final score

409 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 67.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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