Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.74 – 83.71

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.4 ±12.2

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 29.67Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX -8.44Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 59.51Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.1 ±11.7

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 41.29Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 22.72Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 19.7Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 558, 7907, 7694

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 558, 7907, 7694

Auto

13.3 17%

Teleop

37.5 47%

Endgame

29.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3654, 10592, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3654, 10592, 8889

Auto

18.0 22%

Teleop

40.1 48%

Endgame

24.7 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.7pts

Blue projected score83.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3
Score range: 59–106
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 121.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.4Season APEX231.1

13.3Auto18

37.5Teleop40.1

29.8Endgame24.7

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	24
teleop	19	28
endgame	3	24
foul	0	0
total	45	76

Result

Final score

45 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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