Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.56 – 181.87

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.4 ±12

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 4.94Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 103.32Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 22.3Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.8 ±11.7

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 68.29Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 17.62Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 95.96Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1099, 4909, 2785

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1099, 4909, 2785

Auto

22.3 18%

Teleop

66.8 53%

Endgame

36.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7127, 716, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7127, 716, 228

Auto

32.3 18%

Teleop

110.9 62%

Endgame

35.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.6pts

Blue projected score181.9pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.3
Score range: 109–204
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 122.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.4Season APEX312.8

22.3Auto32.3

66.8Teleop110.9

36.2Endgame35.9

34Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	26
teleop	105	88
endgame	29	33
foul	15	10
total	182	157

Result

Final score

182 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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