Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.55 – 255.94

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.5 ±12.2

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 8.12Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 7.45Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 26.98Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403 ±12.4

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 196.99Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 44.42Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 14.53Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10133, 10245, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10133, 10245, 8889

Auto

9.9 24%

Teleop

10.3 25%

Endgame

21.8 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 176, 7694, 5746

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 176, 7694, 5746

Auto

49.6 20%

Teleop

150.1 60%

Endgame

52.0 21%

Strengths

· 176 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.6pts

Blue projected score255.9pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -213.4
Score range: 21–278
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.5Season APEX403

9.9Auto49.6

10.3Teleop150.1

21.8Endgame52

117Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	39
teleop	2	227
endgame	10	79
foul	0	0
total	22	345

Result

Final score

22 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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