Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.45 – 24.75

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.8 ±10.4

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 31.89Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 56.64Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 88.92Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.1 ±12.7

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 10.65Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -7.4Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 21.5Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1071, 173, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1071, 173, 230

Auto

43.4 26%

Teleop

83.3 49%

Endgame

42.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2064, 11464, 6933

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2064, 11464, 6933

Auto

11.7 44%

Teleop

23.5 88%

Endgame

-8.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.5pts

Blue projected score24.8pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.7
Score range: 3–199
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.8Season APEX171.1

43.4Auto11.7

83.3Teleop23.5

42.6Endgame-8.6

56Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	13
teleop	58	40
endgame	34	12
foul	0	0
total	123	65

Result

Final score

123 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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