Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.52 – 96.88

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.2 ±11.6

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 23.79Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 36.53Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 2.2Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.7 ±12.8

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 72.1Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 0.75Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 24.03Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7153, 4572, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7153, 4572, 10133

Auto

23.1 37%

Teleop

28.3 45%

Endgame

11.3 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7694, 11409, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7694, 11409, 8889

Auto

20.2 21%

Teleop

51.4 54%

Endgame

23.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.5pts

Blue projected score96.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.4
Score range: 36–124
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.2Season APEX212.7

23.1Auto20.2

28.3Teleop51.4

11.3Endgame23.8

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	11	55
endgame	1	20
foul	0	0
total	23	88

Result

Final score

23 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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