Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

51.56 – 0

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.9 ±11.7

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 9.08Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 24.21Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 18.27Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.5 ±13.9

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -12.77Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX -12.36Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 19.65Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5856, 558, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5856, 558, 999

Auto

18.3 34%

Teleop

20.2 37%

Endgame

16.0 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11409, 2712, 10592

/ 100 compat

Projected

-5.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11409, 2712, 10592

Auto

5.6 0%

Teleop

-9.2 100%

Endgame

-3.2 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.6pts

Blue projected score-5.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.6
Score range: -22–74
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 123.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.9Season APEX156.5

18.3Auto5.6

20.2Teleop-9.2

16Endgame-3.2

39Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	9
teleop	32	20
endgame	19	11
foul	15	0
total	70	40

Result

Final score

70 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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