Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.14 – 87.72

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 52.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.6 ±12.8

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 3.07Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 123.11Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 64.96Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305 ±11

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 61.01Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 9.78Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 16.93Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2712, 228, 7694

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2712, 228, 7694

Auto

24.6 13%

Teleop

110.8 60%

Endgame

50.5 27%

Strengths

· 228 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 173, 10133, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 173, 10133, 999

Auto

14.7 18%

Teleop

55.1 66%

Endgame

13.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.1pts

Blue projected score87.7pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.4
Score range: 66–213
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.6Season APEX305

24.6Auto14.7

110.8Teleop55.1

50.5Endgame13.6

68Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	11
teleop	60	52
endgame	15	31
foul	5	5
total	98	99

Result

Final score

98 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 52.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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